T20 World Cup 2026 Qualification Scenarios for all teams: Who will make semi-finals?

England sealed a two-wicket win over Pakistan at the Pallekele International Cricket Stadium on Tuesday, February 24, to become the first team to qualify for the semi-finals of the T20 World Cup 2026. Skipper Harry Brook scored a brilliant 100 off 51 balls and guided the team to chase down a target of 165 runs.

Earlier, the West Indies thrashed Zimbabwe by 107 runs at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai on Monday, February 23. The Windies piled up 254/6, the second-highest total in T20 World Cup history, before bowling Zimbabwe out for 147 in 17.4 overs. Gudakesh Motie bagged 4/28, while Akeal Hosein took 3/28.

Let’s take a look at the T20 World Cup 2026 semi-final qualification scenarios from Group 1 and Group 2.

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Group 1 Semi-Final Qualification Scenarios in T20 World Cup 2026

South Africa

South Africa secured two points after their heavy win over India. The clearest path for them is to win both remaining matches against the West Indies and Zimbabwe. If they win only one game, qualification could depend on net run rate, as India and the West Indies can also reach four points.

India

India are under pressure, with their net run rate dropping to -3.800 after a 76-run loss. South Africa need to beat the West Indies, while India must win both remaining games against Zimbabwe and the West Indies.

Other combinations leave India needing very big wins to survive a three-team net run rate battle. There is also a slim scenario where India qualify with two points if South Africa win all their matches and India beat the West Indies.

West Indies

The West Indies are at the top of the group with two points and a net run rate of +5.350. Winning both matches against South Africa and India will seal qualification. If they win only one game, their strong net run rate could still take them through if points are shared among contenders.

Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe are at the bottom with zero points and a net run rate of -5.350. To stay in contention, they must beat both India and South Africa. They will also need favourable results in other matches to force a tie and keep their qualification hopes alive.

Group 2 Semi-Final Qualification Scenarios in T20 World Cup 2026

England

England have already sealed a semi-final spot after beating Pakistan by two wickets in Pallekele. A win in their final match will confirm the top position. Even if Pakistan qualify, England will stay on top unless Sri Lanka reach four points and finish with a better net run rate.

Pakistan

Pakistan have one point with a net run rate of -0.461 after a washed-out match against New Zealand and a defeat to England. To qualify, they must win their final game against Sri Lanka.

They also need England and Sri Lanka to beat New Zealand. If New Zealand defeat England, Pakistan will then depend on having a better net run rate than New Zealand if both teams finish on three points.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka are at the bottom with zero points and a net run rate of -2.550 after a 51-run loss to England. They must win both remaining matches against New Zealand and Pakistan to reach four points. Another loss will end their semi-final hopes.

New Zealand

New Zealand have one point and a net run rate of 0.000 after their opening match against Pakistan was abandoned. Winning both remaining games against Sri Lanka and England will take them straight to the top of the group.

If they beat Sri Lanka but lose to England, they will finish with three points and will need Pakistan to lose to Sri Lanka, or they must have a higher net run rate than Pakistan.

Also read: Mumbai Indians break barrier, open doors for Pakistan cricketers